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基于模糊综合评价法的装配式建筑工程成本风险评价研究

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装配式建筑项目的高额成本在某种程度上成为制约装配式建筑应用与推广的关键因素,因此,对装配式建筑成本风险进行评价将有利于成本管控.基于设计、管理、技术与政策四个维度构建了装配式建筑工程成本风险评价指标体系,利用层次分析法和CRITIC法并通过博弈论组合赋权法确定风险指标权重,依据各风险因素相对重要性比较中的模糊性和不确定性,构建基于模糊综合评价的成本风险评价模型,结合案例项目实施情况进行评价模型验证,研究结果表明:该项目成本处于高风险等级,重点应加强设计与管理维度方面的成本风险管控.
On Cost Risk Assessment of Prefabricated Building Projects Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method
To some extent,high cost has become a key factor restricting the application and promotion of prefabricated building projects,therefore,risk assessment is beneficial for cost control.Based on the di-mensions of design,management,technology and policy,this article constructs a cost risk evaluation in-dex system for prefabricated building projects.The weights of risk indicators are determined using a com-bination of Analytic Hierarchy Process,CRITIC Method and Game Theory Weighting Method.Then,a fuzzy comprehensive cost risk evaluation model is constructed based on the fuzziness and uncertainty of each risk factor.The model is validated through case studies.Research results show that the project is at a high-risk level and cost risk control in the design,and management dimensions should be strengthened.

prefabricated typecost riskfuzzy comprehensive evaluationAnalytic Hierarchy ProcessCRITIC Method

杨春霖

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青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛 266000

装配式 成本风险 模糊综合评价 层次分析法 CRITIC法

2024

菏泽学院学报
菏泽学院

菏泽学院学报

影响因子:0.404
ISSN:1673-2103
年,卷(期):2024.46(5)