Epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province,2013-2022
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province,so as to provide a reference for the development of precise prevention and control measures.Methods Case data were obtained from the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System.The epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of PTB among the elderly were analyzedby descriptive analysis,Joinpoint regression analysis,and spatial autocorrelation analysis.Results A total of 76 176 elderly patients with PTB were reported in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022.The average annual incidence was 59.09/100 000.The incidence peaked in January to Marcheach year,and cases were predominantly among male farmers.Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence of elderly PTB had an decreasing trend from 2013 to 2022,with an annual percentage changes(APC)value of-8.92％(95％CI:-10.32％--7.51％,P＜0.05).The results of global spatial autocorrelation showed that the Moran's I index of the reported incidence of PTB in the elderly ranged from 0.135 to 0.481(all P＜0.05),suggesting the existence of spatial clustering.Local spatial autocorrelation results showed that the"High-High"clustering areas concentrated in the west of Shandong such as Liaocheng,and the north of Shandong such as Dezhou and Binzhou.Conclusions In Shandong Province,the incidence of PTB among the elderly from 2013 to 2022 is on a downward trend,with male farmers as the main population,the"High-High"aggregation areas in the west and north of Shandong Province need to be emphasized for prevention and control.
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