Spatiotemporal and epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Anhui Province,2010-2021
Objective This study aimed to analyze the temporal,spatial,and population distribution and spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of mumps in Anhui Province from 2010to 2021,understand its epidemiological pattern,and to.provide a basis for the development of prevention and control strategies:Methods The reported cases of mumps in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2021 were collected from the Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention.ArcGIS 10.8,Geoda 1.20,and SaTScan 10.1.2 were used to conduct descriptive epidemiological,spatial auto-correlation,and spatiotemporal scanning analyses of mumps in Anhui Province.Results The annual average incidence of mumps was 23.08/100 000 in Anhui Province during 2010-2021,with two peak epidemic periods.The chi-square trend test for incidence showed a downward trend with the year,s(x2=10 287.75,P＜0.001).The sex ratio of males to females was 1.67:1.The highest proportions of cases wereaged 5-＜15 years(68.91％)and students(67.89％).Additionally,the two seasonal peaks of mumps occurred from weeks 14 to 28 and from week 46 to week 4 of the following year.The spatial auto-correlation analysis results showed that except for 2012,2014,and 2015,the Moran's I indexes indicated positive spatial correlations(P＜0.05).The spatiotemporal scan analysis identified a total of ten clusters,of which the first clustering area was distributed in 26 districts and counties of Anhui Province,with a clustering period of 2011-2013,a radius of 144 km and a log likelihood ratio(LLR)value of 7 803.80.Conclusions Based on the findings,there is a cyclical pattern and declining trend of mumps in Anhui Province.In the future,disease surveillance and early warnings for susceptible populations and hotspots should continue to be strengthened to prevent and control the prevalence of mumps.
万方数据
维普
