Prediction of the pulmonary tuberculosis incidence and control measures assessment in China based on Bayesian method and seasonal dynamic model
Objective Considering the seasonal periodicity of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB),a dynamic model is constructed to fit and predict the monthly PTB cases in China,providing a reference for relevant departments to optimize PTB prevention and control measures.Methods First,based on seasonal-trend decomposition using loess(STL)model and susceptible-vaccinated-early latent-late latent-infected-treated(SVELIT)model,a dynamic model(STL-SVELIT)was established.Then,the monthly PTB cases in China from 2017 to 2021 was used to fit the model.The parameters of the model and further the basic reproduction number(R0)were estimated in the Bayesian framework,in order to predict the epidemic trend of PTB in China.In terms of intervention evaluation,sensitivity analysis based on R0was conducted to simulate the prevention measures for PTB.Specifically,the effects of various PTB prevention and control measures were evaluated by reducing the value of parameters:β,which represents the disease transmission coefficient;θ1,θ2,which accounts for the progression rate from latent individuals to active PTB patients in both early and late stages;and p3,which indicates the proportion of symptomatic cases.Results The Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)was 4.30％when using the monthly PTB cases from 2017 to 2021 to fit the STL-SVELIT model.MAPE was 6.57％when predicting the monthly PTB cases from January 2022 to May 2023,which has a good fitting effect and prediction accuracy.The model estimated that the R0 of PTB in China was 2.076,suggesting that PTB remains prevalent in the popula-tion.Simulation results showed that the predicted PTB incidence in China will reach 29.1 per 100 000 in 2035 if β declined by 75.00％;25.4 per 100 000 in 2035 ifθ1and θ2 both decreased by 75.00％;11.1 per 100 000 in 2035 if parameters β,θ1,θ2 and p3all declined by 75.00％.Conclusions Reducing the disease transmission coefficient and the rate of progression of the latent period is effective in controlling the PTB epidemic.However,comprehensive measures are required to achieve the WHO End TB Strategies target in 2035(tuberculosis incidence below 10.0 per 100 000).
Pulmonary tuberculosisSeasonal decompositionTransmission dynamics modelBayesian theoryPrediction and evaluation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
