Establishment of early warning threshold of hand,foot and mouth disease based on moving epidemic method and synthetic index method in Guangzhou
Objective Using moving epidemic method(MEM)and synthetic index method to establish grading early warning threshold of hand,foot and mouth disease,so as to provide scientific evidence for hand,foot and mouth disease prevention and control in Guangzhou.Methods The weekly incidence and clustered epidemic data of hand,foot and mouth disease from 2015 to 2021 were collected.Two peaks of hand,foot and mouth disease were split by plotting the epidemic curve of the average weekly incidence.Then data on weekly incidence and clusters of hand,foot and mouth disease in spring and summer from 2015 to 2021(except 2020)were extracted to establish grading early warning model by MEM and synthetic index method.The epidemic threshold and grading intensity thresholds in 2022 were estimated and the early warning effect of established model was verified by cross-validation method.Results Based on the established model,the epidemic start threshold of hand,foot and mouth disease in Guangzhou was 0.78 between the 10th and 37th weeks in 2022.And the medium,high and extremely high intensity thresholds of hand,foot and mouth disease were 1.85,2.72 and 3.22,respectively.The optimal parameter 8 was 2.5,and the overall sensitivity,specificity and Youden's index were 94.15%,92.67%and 0.87,respectively,which indicated good fitting effect.Conclusions The combination of MEM and the synthetic index method can achieve more objective and comprehensive early warning of hand,foot and mouth disease.
Hand,foot,and mouth diseaseMoving epidemic methodSynthetic index methodEarly warning