Objective To conduct a retrospective analysis of the monitoring data on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Guangdong Province from 2010 to 2022,and explore characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of HFRS data,so as to identify high-risk areas for HFRS and provide references for the development of targeted prevention and control measures.Methods The data on HFRS were obtained from the Chinese National Disease Reporting Information System.We conducted a trend analysis of HFRS case data using Joinpoint 4.6.0.0 and assessed spatial autocorrelation with GeoDa 1.16.Spatio-temporal clusters were identified using SaTScan 10.1,where the log-likelihood ratio(LLR)indicated the strength of clusters.Results From 2010 to 2022,Guangdong reported 4 322 HFRS cases,with an average annual incidence rate of 0.31 per 100 000.The incidence rate exhibited a decreasing trend(AAPC=-8.4％,95％CI:-12.6％--3.9％).Peak cases occurred in March and April(RR=1.61,LLR=82.78,P=0.001).Malesand those aged 30-69 were disproportionately affected.The Pearl River Delta,especially Guangzhou and Foshan,reported the highest incidence.Occupationally,those engaged in household chores and unemployed individuals(n=973,22.51％),commercial service personnel(n=726,16.80％),workers(n=645,14.92％),and farmers(n=638,14.76％)were relatively numerous.Spatial clustering was evident,with clusters centered in the Pearl River Delta.Spatio-temporal analysis identified clusters in Guangzhou,Foshan,and other regions of Guangdong.HFRS occurred primarily in winter and spring,with occasional summer outbreaks,consistently affecting the Pearl River Delta,particularly Guangzhou and Foshan.The spatial clustering of HFRS cases is prominent,with"high-high"clusters concentrated in Guangzhou and Foshan within the Pearl River Delta.Through spatiotemporal scanning analysis,we identified one type Ⅰ cluster encompassing nine counties in Guangzhou and Foshan from February to March 2013.Additionally,two type Ⅱ clusters were detected,occurring in January to February 2015 and May to June 2017,respectively.One affected seven cities in the Pearl River Delta,while the other encompassed 25 counties in Yangjiang City in West Guangdong.Annual scans showed that while HFRS primarily occurs in winter and spring,there are occasional early summer outbreaks.The affected cities and counties vary annually,but the Pearl River Delta,especially Guangzhou and Foshan,remains a consistent focal point.Conclusions The incidence of HFRS in Guangdong shows a downward trend.HFRS occurs frequently in winter and spring.The middle-aged and the elderly are the main groups with high incidence.The disease exhibits seasonal and spatial clustering characteristics,with the Pearl River Delta region being the high-incidence area.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndromeSpatial autocorrelationSpatio-temporal aggregation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
