Analysis on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly in Jiangsu Province from 2017 to 2022
Objective This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly population in Jiangsu Province,China,from 2017 to 2022.The findings will provide a scientific basis for implementing and adjusting pulmonary tuberculosis preven-tion and control strategies in the province.Methods We collected data on pulmonary tuberculosis inci-dence in the elderly population of Jiangsu Province from 2017 to 2022,along with the corresponding elderly population figures for each county.ArcGIS 10.7 software was used for visualization mapping.Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted using Geoda 1.18.0 software to explore spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis cases.Finally,SaTScan 10.1 software was employed for spatiotemporal scan analysis to identify areas with spatiotemporal aggregation.Results The reported inci-dence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly population of Jiangsu Province decreased significantly from 78.99/100 000 in 2017 to 55.17/100 000 in 2022(x2trend=439.493,P＜0.001),with an average annual incidence rate of 64.14/100 000.The Moran's Ⅰ values ranged from 0.243 to 0.600,indicating an overall spatial clustering distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis cases.Spatiotemporal scan analysis identified five statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters(P＜0.05),including a primary cluster encompassing 22 counties,a secondary cluster of 3 counties,a tertiary cluster of 5 counties,and a quaternary cluster of 14 counties.And the time of spatiotemporal aggregation was 2017-2019.Conclusions Despite a year-by-year decrease,the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly population of Jiangsu Province remains higher than the general population.Furthermore,the presence of evident spatial clustering necessitates focused attention in these areas for improved pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control strategies.
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