首页|经历生命早期丧亲对中国老年人寿命影响研究

经历生命早期丧亲对中国老年人寿命影响研究

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目的 探索经历生命早期丧亲(即父亲或母亲死亡)事件对中国老年人寿命的影响.方法 使用中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey,CLHLS)2002-2021年数据,获取个体死亡或失访结局信息和早期丧亲状况等变量信息.组间比较使用x2检验,单因素生存分析采用Kaplan-Meier法,多因素生存分析使用加速失效时间模型(accelerated failure time model,AFT),以时间比(time ratio,TR)表示发生风险.敏感性分析采用多重线性回归.结果 追踪收集10 278名研究对象的生存数据,最终死亡7 738人,平均死亡年龄为(92.49±9.35)岁,存活358人,失访2 182人.通过Log-rank检验得出P=0.002,非早期丧亲中位生存时间为95岁(95%CI:94.654~95.346),早期丧亲中位生存时间为94岁(95%CI:93.494~94.506),差异有统计学意义(x2=9.404,P=0.002).纳入控制变量,通过加速失效时间模型分析,经历早期丧亲者平均寿命是非早期丧亲者的0.994 2(95%CI:0.990 3~0.998 2,P=0.004),即经历早期丧亲平均会缩短0.58%的个体寿命.结论 经历早期丧亲事件会导致寿命缩短,应将早期丧亲作为危险因素加以研究和干预,缩小健康差异,提升国民健康水平.
Study of the impact of experiencing early parental death on the lifespan of the elderly in China
Objective To explore the impact of early parental death(i.e.,death of father or mother)on the life span of the elderly in China.Methods The tracking data from the Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey(CLHLS)from 2002 to 2021 were utilized to acquire information on individual mortality/loss to follow-up outcomes and variables such as early parental death.Differences between groups were assessed using the x2 test.Univariate survival analysis employed the Kaplan-Meier method,while multivariate survival analysis employed the accelerated failure time model(AFT),with the risk of occurrence expressed as the time ratio(TR).Sensitivity analysis was conducted by multiple linear regression.Results A total of 10 278 individuals were recruited as study participants,of whom 7 738 passed away,with an average age of 92.49±9.35 years.358 survived and 2 182 were lost to follow-up.The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a P-value of 0.002 and the median survival time for non-early parental death was 95 years old(95%CI:94.654-95.346)whereas the median survival time for early parental death was 94 years old(95%CI:93.494-94.506).with the difference was statistically significant.After adjusting for control variables,the AFT model analysis indicated that the average lifespan of those who had experienced early parental death was 0.994 2 that of those who had not(95%CI:0.990 3-0.998 2,P=0.004),indicating that experiencing early parental death reduces an individual's average lifespan by 0.58%.Conclusions Experiencing early parental death will lead to a shortened life span.It is necessary to study and intervene the early parental death as a risk factor,thereby narrowing the health gap and improving the national health level.

Parental deathElderlyLifespanAccelerated failure time modelTime ratio

沈文达、张旭熙、孙昕霙、冯星淋、曾毅

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北京大学公共卫生学院社会医学与健康教育系,北京 100191

天津市疾病预防控制中心非传染性疾病预防控制所,天津 300011

北京大学医学部老年健康研究中心,北京 100191

北京大学公共卫生学院卫生政策与管理学系,北京 100191

北京大学国家发展研究院健康老龄与发展研究中心,北京 100871

杜克大学医学院老龄与人类发展研究中心和老年医学部,达勒姆NC27710

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丧亲 老年人 寿命 加速失效时间模型 时间比

科技部国家重点研发计划国家自然科学基金天津市医学重点学科(专科)建设项目天津市卫生健康委重点学科专项北京泰康溢彩公益基金会国家重点研发计划

2022YFC360090472061137004TJYX-ZDXK-051ATJWJ2023XK0282018YFC2000400

2024

中华疾病控制杂志
中华预防医学会 安徽医科大学

中华疾病控制杂志

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.862
ISSN:1674-3679
年,卷(期):2024.28(9)
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