Prediction of colorectal cancer mortality burden and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in Shandong Province by 2030
Objective To predict the burden of mortality of colorectal cancer(CRC)in Shandong Province by 2030 and evaluate the effects of risk-controlling factors to reduce such burden of mortality.Methods We simulated different scenarios for colorectal cancer mortality through proportion change model in 2030.The scenarios were determined by the risk factors provided by the WHO targets.Our model was based on the correlation between mortality risk and the exposure factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment.Our data were from the risk factor surveillance and colorectal mortality data of Shandong Province.Results If the exposure to risk factors were to follow the existing trend,the number of deaths and mortality rate of colorectal cancer among people over 20 years old in Shandong Province in 2030 would increase by 47.68％and 35.51％,respectively,compared to 2013.Meanwhile,the standardized mortality rate and the probability of premature death would decrease by 14.48％and 10.10％,respectively.If alcohol consumption and BMI reached to the control targets,the probability of premature death would decrease by 12.11％and 11.02％,respectively,compared to 2013.If all risk factors reach to the control targets,we would be able to avoid 413.24 deaths by 2030 and decrease the probability of premature death by 13.14％(compared to 2013).Conclusions Under the existing trend,the number of deaths and the mortality rate of CRC in Shandong Province are expected to be higher in 2030 than in 2013,although the standardized mortality rate and the probability of premature death are an-ticipated decrease.Should the targeted reductions in risk factors be achieved,the burden of colorectal cancer could be reduced.The results suggest that measures such as alcohol control and BMI management will significantly reduce the mortality burden of CRC in Shandong Province.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
