Correlation analysis of influenza activity level and meteorological factors in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021
Objective To analyze the correlation and interaction between the prevalence of different subtypes of influenza in Jiangxi Province,and to identify the main meteorological factors affecting the prevalence of different subtypes of influenza,so as to provide the basis for evaluating the correlation between different meteorological factors and influenza activity level,as well as for carrying out meteorological prediction and early warning of influenza.Methods The testing results of influenza-like cases(ILI)specimens from influenza sentinel hospitals in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021 were collected weekly,along with meteorological data from the same period.Then,descriptive epidemiological analysis and correlation analysis were conducted using R 4.1.3 software,and generalized linear models were used for multi-factor regression analysis.Results The positive rate of ILI samples collected from sentinel hospitals of Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021 were 19.46％,11.72％,20.24％,6.46％and 8.27％,respectively,with the highest positive rate occurring in the first quarter of each year except for the third quarter of 2017.Additionally,the dominant influenza virus subtypes varied annually.The positive rate of influenza virus nucleic acid detection was significantly associated with mean air tempera-ture(r=-0.436,P＜0.001),sunshine hours(r=-0.165,P=0.007),maximum wind speed(r=-0.164,P=0.008),minimum air temperature(r=-0.406,P＜0.001)and the maximum temperature(r=-0.427,P＜0.001)that were all found to have a negative correlation.The subtypes of influenza,including influenza A(H1N1),influenza B virus Victoria lineage(Victoria)and influenza B virus Yamagata lineage(Yamagata for short),exhibited a negative correlation with average temperature,minimum temperature,and maximum temperature.Furthermore,H1N1 showed a negative correlation with sunshine duration and daily precipitation,while influenza Yamagata was negatively correlated with maximum wind speed.However,regression analysis revealed that the different subtypes of influenza were strongly negatively correlated with average temperature but did not show any correlation with other meteorological factors.Conclusions The correlation between influenza activity levels and meteorological factors in Jiangxi Province was clearly evident,with varying correlations observed between the positive rates of different subtypes of influenza and meteorological factors.Among these factors,average temperature was identified as the primary factor influencing influenza activity level.
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