Application of Joinpoint regression analysis in the trend of influenza incidence in Qinghai Province from 2005 to 2023
Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trend characteristics of influenza epidemics in Qinghai Province from 2005 to 2023,provide a reference to the specific prevention and control in the plateau areas.Methods The influenza incidence data in Qinghai Province were extracted from the database of China information system for disease control and prevention.The incidence rate of influenza in Qinghai Province was analyzed descriptively from 2005 to 2023.Using the Joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate the time trend of the influenza incidence characteristics in Qinghai Province from 2005 to 2023.Results During 2005-2023,we have cumulatively reported 31 156 cases of influenza in Qinghai Province,of which 77.59％cases were in Xining and Haidong City(24 174/31 156).The total incidence rate in Qinghai Province in 2005-2023 showed an upward trend with an average annual percent change(AAPC)of 31.18％(t=4.780,P＜0.001).The annual incidence rate remained stable in terms of the gender trend changes;and the incidence of the age group in 0-＜5,5-＜15,15-＜25,25-＜60,and ≥60 all showed an increasing trend,with AAPC rising at 33.45％,31.20％,27.30％,27.31％and 34.61％,respectively.All age groups showed a turning point in 2021,which slowly rose before the turning point.Conclusions From 2005 to 2023,influenza incidence in Qinghai Province as a whole showed a slow-rapid rise and is currently in a high incidence situation,which should optimize the deployment of medical resources;the key prevention and control and control areas are Xining City and Haidong City as the center of the circle radiating in all directions;the groups under 15 years old and over 60 years old are the high incidence groups.It is essential to strengthen influenza monitoring and early warning in key locations such as schools and nursing homes,while actively promoting influenza vaccination for these groups.
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