The relationship between the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease and the impact of meteorological factors in a certain city,2017-2019
Objective To investigate the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)and their lagged effects.Methods Hourly meteorological data for a certain city from 2017 to 2019 were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Network,while daily incidence data for HFMD in a certain city during the same period were retrieved from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.Using these two datasets,a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was constructed.Results With reference to the median values of meteorological factors,the cumulative risk of HFMD exhibited a pattern of initial increase followed by decrease as tem-perature rose,forming an S-shaped curve.Specifically,a protective effect was observed when the daily average temperature was between-8.5 ℃ and-4.0 ℃ with a lag of 6 to 23 days.At a daily average temperature of-8.5 ℃ with a lag of 7 days,the risk of HFMD was at its lowest(RR=0.741,95％CI:0.583-0.941).Similarly,a protective effect was noted for daily average atmospheric pressure between 1 015 and 1 038 hPa with a lag of 4 to 25 days.At a daily average pressure of 1 038 hPa with a lag of 25 days,the risk of HFMD was at its minimum(RR=0.706,95％CI:0.540-0.924).Conclusions HFMD is influenced by meteorological factors.High temperatures increase the risk of HFMD,although their impact on incidence rates is unstable.Conversely,low temperatures and high atmospheric pressures reduce the risk of HFMD,and all three factors exhibit a discernible lagged effect.
Hand,foot and mouth diseaseMeteorological factorsDistribution lag nonlinear model
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