Predictive Analysis of the Demand for Generally Beneficial 0-3 Childcare Enrollment Scale in Megacity under the"Three Child"Policy:Taking Shanghai as an Example
Predictive Analysis of the Demand for Generally Beneficial 0-3 Childcare Enrollment Scale in Megacity under the"Three Child"Policy:Taking Shanghai as an Example
The construction of a generally beneficial childcare service system is currently a national strategy in China to actively address negative popu-lation growth and aging.The concept of"Caring for Children with Good Education"is also a significant livelihood project for promoting harmonious and sta-ble national and social stability.Shanghai is a typical representative of the governance of China's Megacities,and its development of public childcare serv-ices plays a significant leading and demonstration role nationwide.Based on the data from the China Seventh Population Census,using the classic cohort-component method,a predictive analysis was conducted on the demand for generally beneficial childcare enrollment scale in Shanghai from 2024 to 2050.The results indicate that during the period from 2024 to 2050,the development trend of inclusive childcare demand for children under 3 years old across all scenarios is largely consistent.The first demand peak appears between 2028 and 2033,followed by a decline,reaching a trough between 2036 and 2038 before gradually rising again.A second demand peak appears between 2048 and 2050.The prediction results for the medium scenario indicate that from 2024 to 2050,the scale of generally beneficial childcare demand scale for children under 3 years old in Shanghai will increase from 47,000 to 50,100 in 2024 to 62,000 to 72,000 in 2031,then decline from 2032 to 2037 to 54,500 to 64,800,and then rise again from 2049 to 76,900 to 91,200.There are differences in the demand for generally beneficial childcare for each single-year age group,including 0-year-old,1-year-old,and 2-year-old.Suggestions include strengthening dynamic monitoring of birth population size,examining childcare demand by age groups to improve resource allocation ef-ficiency,and fully tapping into surplus resources in kindergartens and focusing on the development of generally beneficial childcare services for 2-year-old.
关键词
普惠性托育/托位需求规模/人口预测/超大城市
Key words
Generally Beneficial Childcare/the Demand for Generally Beneficial 0-3 Childcare Enrollment Scale/Population Projections/Megacity
万方数据