Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on Pork Prices——Investigation Based on Multi-phase DID Model
With the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic as the entry point,the outbreak area and the non-outbreak area regarded as a quasi-natural experiment of the impact of some provinces on pork price,the multi-phase DID model was used to investigate the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on pork price in this study.DID-QR model was built to test the processing effect of COVID-19 epidemic on pork price under different initial price growth rates and different institutional environments.The results showed that the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic led to a sharp rise in pork price,with an average increase of about 10％.The price of pork affected by the epidemic showed a trend of rising,stable,rising again,stable and falling.During the inspection period,the price of pork increased significantly only in the next month,March,June and July,and began to show an obvious downward trend in October.The outbreak of COV-ID-19 has widened the gap of pork prices in different regions,and the effect of the epidemic on the price is more obvious in the areas where the initial agricultural economic development level is relatively low and the initial economic development level is relatively high.Therefore,according to the heterogeneity of pork prices under different conditions,the government should formulate targeted measures to reduce the impact of sudden external shocks on the pork market by establishing the linkage mechanism of the main links of the industrial chain and improving the public information platform.
COVID-19 epidemicpork pricequasi natural experimentdifference in difference modelquantile regression model
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