Construction and verification of early warning model for recurrence risk in patients with Helicobacter pylori positive peptic ulcer
Objective To explore the construction and verification of early warning model of recurrence risk in patients with Helicobacter pylori(Hp)positive peptic ulcer(PU).Methods A total of 149 Hp-positive PU patients admitted to our hospital from May 2020 to May 2022 were selected as the research objects by retrospective analysis.According to the recurrence of peptic ulcer in follow-up data,they were divided into non-recurrence group(n = 83)and recurrence group(n = 66),and 54 patients with Helicobacter pylori positive peptic ulcer were admitted to our hospital from June 2022 to June 2023 were included as the verification group.Through single factor analysis,meaningful influencing factors were screened for multi-factor analysis to establish a prediction model finally,and the model was externally verified.Results Univariate analysis showed that the recurrence of Hp-positive PU patients after treatment may be related to ulcer diameter,smoking and alcohol abuse,anxiety and depression,Repeated Hp infection and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs application history(P<0.05).Logistics regression analysis showed that ulcer diameter≥7 mm,smoking and alcohol abuse,anxiety and depression,Repeated Hp infection,and NSAIDs application history were risk factors for recurrence of Hp-positive PU patients after treatment.The final established Hp-positive PU recurrence risk early warning model was logit P=-5.215 + 1.693×ulcer diameter + 1.905×smoking and alcoholism + 1.652×anxiety and depression + 1.466×Repeated Hp infection + 1.497×NSAIDs application history.The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of the model was 0.835,95%CI was 0.773～0.897,sensitivity was 0.834,specificity was 0.742,and the calibration curve was close to the ideal curve.The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of the verification group was 0.763,95%CI was 0.660～0.926,the sensitivity was 0.641,the specificity was 0.656,and the calibration curve fit was good.Conclusion Ulcer diameter,smoking and alcohol abuse,anxiety and depression,Repeated Hp infection and NSAIDs application history are the influencing factors of Hp-positive PU recurrence.
Helicobacter pyloriPeptic ulcerInfluencing factorsPrediction model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
