首页|肛周脓肿术后创面愈合的影响因素及其列线图风险模型的构建

肛周脓肿术后创面愈合的影响因素及其列线图风险模型的构建

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目的 探究肛周脓肿术后创面愈合的影响因素并构建列线图风险模型。方法 选取 2020 年 4 月~2023 年4 月合肥市第八人民医院收治的肛周脓肿患者 158 例,接受根治术 1 周后根据创面质量评价总分,分为愈合不良组(42 例)和愈合良好组(116 例)。收集患者临床资料,包括年龄、性别、是否便秘、是否糖尿病、饮食是否合理、切口类型、是否感染、是否机械刺激等。logistic回归分析影响肛周脓肿术后创面愈合的因素;R3。6。3 软件及rms程序包构建预测肛周脓肿术后创面愈合的列线图风险模型;预测肛周脓肿术后创面愈合列线图模型的区分度及一致性采用ROC曲线及校准曲线评估。结果 愈合不良组便秘、饮食不合理、感染、合并糖尿病的比例高于愈合良好组,差异有统计学意义(P<0。05)。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,便秘、糖尿病、饮食不合理、感染均是肛周脓肿术后创面愈合不良的独立危险因素(P<0。05)。列线图模型显示,便秘增加 87。5 分的权重,糖尿病增加 100 分的权重,饮食不合理增加 68。5 分的权重,感染增加 79。1 分的权重。对构建的列线图模型采用H-L拟合度检验,结果显示χ2=7。167、P=0。306,校准曲线斜率趋近 1。ROC曲线进行模型区分度评估,曲线下面积为0。840(95%CI=0。773~0。893),敏感度、特异性分别为80。95%、76。72%。结论 便秘、饮食不合理、感染、合并糖尿病均是肛周脓肿术后创面愈合不良的影响因素,以此构建的列线图模型用于个体化预测肛周脓肿术后创面愈合不良的风险具有较高临床意义。
The influencing factors of wound healing after perianal abscess surgery and the construction of nomogram risk model
Objective To explore the influencing factors of wound healing after perianal abscess surgery and build a nomogram risk model.Methods A total of 158 patients with perianal abscess admitted to our hospital from April 2020 to April 2023 were selected,and their primary data were collected,including age,gender,constipation,diabetes,diet,incision type,infection,mechanical stimulation,etc.One week after radical operation,the wounds were divided into poor healing group and good healing group according to the total score of wound quality evaluation.Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the factors influencing wound healing after perianal abscess operation.R3.6.3 software and rms software package were used to build an nomogram risk model to predict wound healing after perianal abscess surgery.The differentiation and consistency of the nomograph model for predicting wound healing after perianal abscess surgery were evaluated by ROC curve and calibration curve.Results The proportions of constipation,unreasonable diet,infection and diabetes in the poorly healed group were significantly higher than those in the well healed group(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that constipation,diabetes,unreasonable diet and infection were independent risk factors for poor wound healing after perianal abscess surgery(P<0.05).The nomogram model showed that the presence of constipation increased the weight by 87.5 points,the presence of diabetes increased the weight by 100 points,the presence of unreasonable diet increased the weight by 68.5 points,and the presence of infection increased the weight by 79.1 points.H-L fit test was adopted for the constructed nomogram model,and the result showed that χ2 = 7.167,P= 0.306,the slope of calibration curve approached.The area under the ROC curve was 0.840(95%CI=0.773~0.893),and the sensitivity and specificity were 80.95%and 76.72%respectively.Conclusion Constipation,unreasonable diet,infection,and diabetes are all the influencing factors of poor wound healing after perianal abscess surgery.The nomogram model constructed by there factors has a high clinical significance in individually predicting the risk of poor wound healing after perianal abscess surgery.

Perianal abscessWound healingInfluencing factorsNomograph modelPoor healingForecast

刘永海、李升平、王娟、唐磊

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238000 合肥市第八人民医院肛肠科

肛周脓肿 创面愈合 影响因素 列线图模型 愈合不良 预测

安徽省教育厅高等学校科研项目(2021)

KJ2020A0860

2024

中华保健医学杂志
中国人民解放军总后勤部卫生部保健局

中华保健医学杂志

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.477
ISSN:1674-3245
年,卷(期):2024.26(2)
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