Risk factors and risk prediction models for disease recurrence in patients with psoriasis vulgaris
Objective To explore the risk factors of disease recurrence in patients with psoriasis vulgaris and establish a risk prediction model.Methods Clinical data of 150 patients with psoriasis vulgaris admitted to our hospital from January 2020 to January 2022 were retrospectively analyzed,and they were divided into relapse group(n=95)and non-recurrence group(n=55)according to follow-up disease recurrence.A univariate analysis was performed on the factors related to disease recurrence in the two groups of psoriasis vulgaris patients.Logistic regression analysis was performed on the risk factors with statistical significance according to the result of univariate analysis,and the possible independent influencing factors of psoriasis vulgaris recurrence were screened.The regression coefficient was used to establish the prediction model of normal psoriasis recurrence.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn to evaluate the effectiveness of the psoriasis vulgaris recurrence model with the area under curve(AUC).Results The result of univariate analysis showed that age≥45 years,family history of psoriasis,smoking,drinking,infection,sleep disorders,dampness,irregular medication,trauma,nervous mood,endocrine and metabolic disorders had significant effects on the recurrence of psoriasis vulgaris(P<0.05).Age≥45 years,family history of psoriasis,smoking,drinking,infection,sleep disorder,damp,irregular drug use,trauma,stress,endocrine and metabolic disorders were independent factors for the recurrence of psoriasis vulgare(P<0.001).Age≥45 years,family history of psoriasis,smoking,drinking,infection,sleep disorders,dampness,irregular medication,trauma,nervous mood,endocrine and metabolic disorders were significantly positively correlated with the recurrence of psoriasis vulgaris.Prediction model for psoriasis vulgaris recurrence:h(t,X)= h0(t)exp(0.836X1 + 1.334X2 + 0.326X3 + 1.401X4 + 1.295X5 + 1.533X6 + 0.457X7 + 1.567X9 + 1.412X10 + 1.523X11).ROC curve analysis of the model for predicting the recurrence of psoriasis vulgaris:AUC=0.867(95%CI=0.714～0.812,P<0.05),the best prediction truncation value was 0.665,the sensitivity was 73.65%,and the specificity was 93.87.Conclusion Age≥45 years,family history of psoriasis,smoking,drinking,infection,sleep disorders,dampness,irregular medication,trauma,stress,endocrine and metabolic disorders can all lead to the recurrence of psoriasis vulgaris.
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