Study on the Dynamic Spillover Effect of Livestock Product Prices——Analysis based on wholesale price data of lamb market
Accurately measuring the price fluctuations and cyclical characteristics of livestock products can help stabilize the livestock product market and promote high-quality development of animal husbandry.This article takes the price of lamb in China's market from January 2000 to October 2022 as the research object,and uses spectral variance decomposition to calculate the dynamic spillover effects of lamb prices in the long-,medium-,and short-term.Results show that,from the perspective of spillover effects of price fluctuations in the national market,the price fluctuations of lamb mainly exhibit positive spillover effects in the main lamb producing areas;The main manifestation in the main sales areas of lamb is negative spillover effects.From the perspective of dynamic spillover effects in different regions,the short-term price fluctuation spillover effects in China's lamb market are greater than those in the medium-to long-term;In the main lamb producing areas,price fluctuations caused by external emergencies are mainly manifested as an increase in medium-and long-term spillover effects;While in the main sales areas of lamb,the price fluctuations caused by unexpected events mainly manifest as an increase in short-term spillover effects.Therefore,the government should establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism for the prices of livestock products in the market to suppress short-term price fluctuations in the main sales areas;Reasonably plan advantageous production areas and increase the long-term supply capacity of the main production area market to ensure the healthy and stable development of the livestock product market.
price of livestock productsprice spillover effectprice fluctuationsspectral analysisvariance decomposition
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
