A Study of the Impact of International Commodity Prices on Inflation in Latin America:An empirical analysis based on macro data in Latin America
As international commodity price shocks in recent years have directly pushed up inflation worldwide and threatened international investment,it is important to propose policy responses based on a study of the relationship between the three.This paper systematically analyzes the impact of international commodity prices on inflation in Latin America from both theoretical and empirical perspectives,with the former sorting out the transmission mechanism of price shocks,and the latter analyzing the changes of producer price indices(PPI)and exchange rates of 11 major Latin American countries based on SVAR model.Based on this,the following conclusions are obtained:first,the transmission mechanism of commodity price shocks to Latin American countries is effective;second,in Latin America,food commodity price shocks affect inflation to a greater extent than fuels,and shocks of fuels prices do greater than that of minerals;third,inflation stability is higher in Mexi-co and the main South American countries than in Central America.Given that inflation affects international investment through channels such as macro policy adjustments,changes in investment return rate,exchange rate risks,and economic and social uncertainty,China needs to make timely investment strategy responses when investing in Latin America.
international commodity pricesinflationexchange ratesinternational investmentLatin America
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NSTL
万方数据
