The Transmission Study of Grain Price Fluctuations and Food Security
Understanding the transmission mechanisms of food prices is crucial for ensuring the stability of food security.This paper employs a combined STL-NAR model to forecast the prices of four types of grains(rice,corn,soybeans,and wheat)based on price components,and uses symbolic dynamics to describe the fluctuations in grain prices as different price states.Additionally,a hidden Markov chain model is used to construct a state transition matrix between grain prices and food security.The results indicate that the STL-NAR model provides accurate predictions for the prices of rice,corn,soybeans,and wheat.The forecast shows that in 2024,rice prices will experience a slight upward trend,wheat prices will follow an inverted"V"trend,and prices for corn and soybeans will decline.There is a certain relationship between the stability of food security and price transmission,but they are not entirely consistent.When food security is stable,price transmission tends to be smooth,and grain prices generally show a declining trend;however,when the stability of food security and the smoothness of price trans-mission are hindered,effective policy measures must be taken to ensure food security and stabilize food prices.
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