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中国区域经济韧性测度研究——基于shift-share分解方法的分析

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面临内外部环境双重压力,建设具有韧性的区域经济体系,对我国构建新发展格局和实现第二个百年奋斗目标具有重要意义.本文测度我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的经济韧性,采用shift-share方法将其进一步分解为产业结构偏离分量和区域竞争力偏离分量,并通过三次产业分解分析经济韧性的决定因素.研究发现:1997-2022年我国区域经济韧性整体呈先下降后上升的趋势,但在不同时期区域经济韧性表现差异明显;在经济冲击中,产业的竞争力对提高区域经济韧性发挥主要作用;由于发展阶段和冲击类型的差异,不同时期各产业竞争力对区域经济韧性的影响不同.基于此,应全面提升区域竞争力、促进制造业转型升级、构建优质高效的服务业新体系,从而提升我国区域经济韧性.
Measurement and Analysis of Regional Economic Resilience in China——Analysis based on shift share decomposition method
Facing dual pressures from both internal and external environments,building a resilient regional econonuic system is of great significance for China to form a new development pattern and achieve the second centenary goal.This paper measures the economic re-silience of China's 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government),further decomposes the eco-nomic resilience into industrial structure deviation component and regional competitiveness deviation component using the shift-share de-composition method,and analyzes the determining factors of economic resilience by decomposing it according to three industries.Our find-ings suggest that:From 1997 to 2022,China's regional economic resilience generally showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,but there were significant differences in the performance of regional economic resilience in different periods;In economic shocks,the com-petitiveness of industries played a major role in improving regional economic resilience;Due to differences in development stages and types of shocks,the impact of industrial competitiveness on regional economic resilience varied in different periods.Based on this,it is necessary to comprehensively enhance regional competitiveness,promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing,and build a new system of high-quality and efficient service industry,so as to enhance China's regional economic resilience.

economic resilienceindustrial structureregional competitivenessshift-share decomposition method

李慧、王苗苗、刘子毅

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郑州大学商学院

南开大学经济学院

经济韧性 产业结构 区域竞争力 shift-share分解

河南省重点研发与推广专项(软科学研究)项目河南省哲学社会科学规划青年项目教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金

2224004100912022CJJ16423YJC790059

2024

价格理论与实践
中国价格协会

价格理论与实践

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.54
ISSN:1003-3971
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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