Study on the Impact of Economic Development and Income Rise on Marriage——An Analysis based on data from the Fifth,Sixth and Seventh National Population Censuses of China
Marriage is related to social stability and demographic changes,and the study of marriage has important practical significance.In recent years,the trend of increasing divorce demography in China has attracted widespread social attention,and aca-demics are also exploring the reasons for the persistently high divorce demography.Highly correlated with the trend of divorce de-mography is the level of economic development,so is economic development a factor leading to the increase of divorce demography?This paper uses data from the fifth,sixth,and seventh national population censuses to empirically test the causal relationship between economic development and divorce demography using the least squares and instrumental variables methods.The results find that the more economically developed a county or city is,the higher its divorce demography is.Specifically,the level of economic develop-ment explained approximately 53.0％of the variation in divorce demography.More importantly,economic development significantly increases the average number of years of schooling(human capital)and contributes more to females than males.The higher the level of female income,the higher the probability of divorce,which explains why economic development has a greater impact on the divorce demography for females.In order to curb the rising trend of divorce demography,it is necessary to guide the social culture back to the"family-oriented".At the same time,it is necessary to recognize women's contributions and sacrifices in marriage,and optimize the legal mechanisms for the freedom of marriage and the protection of marital rights and interests,so that both men and women can have a positive attitude toward marriage.On the one hand,the research in this paper provides a theoretical explanation for the phe-nomenon of high divorce demography;On the other hand,it puts forward corresponding policy recommendations based on the find-ings of the study,which provides empirical evidence to support the government's introduction of relevant policies and measures.
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