Research on the Fluctuation Trends and Typical Characteristics of International Grain Prices——Based on the characterization analysis of four round wave cycles since 1990
Under the influence of loose monetary environment,the impact of pandemic situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,international food prices have recently risen sharply and fluctuated abnormally,posing serious challenges to world food security.It is of great significance to analyze the influencing factors of grain price and put forward the corresponding counter-measures.Based on the long-term observation of international food price fluctuations,this paper carries out a typical analysis of four rounds of sharp rises in international food prices since 1990.It summarizes the various factors that lead to the rise of grain prices,and summarizes the two core factors:the imbalance of grain supply and demand structure and the financialization of grain.Based on two core factors,select corresponding variables that affect grain prices,and empirically test the structural impact response of grain prices on grain production,grain demand,financial liquidity,and grain speculative capital.The results show that there is a strong negative correlation between grain supply and grain prices,while there is a strong positive correlation be-tween financial liquidity,capital speculation,and grain prices.The positive correlation between grain demand and grain prices is relatively weak.On this basis,it is suggested to optimize the agricultural industry structure and planting structure,strengthen price supervision in the grain futures market and capital market,crack down on malicious capital speculation,and make every effort to ensure the safety of domestic grain market supply and stable grain prices.
grain pricesbalance of supply and demandfinancial liquidityspeculative capital
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