Research on the Compilation and Prediction of China's Copper Demand Prosperity Index
Copper is the most critical raw material on the global path towards net zero emissions,and compiling the China Copper Demand Index is of great significance for China s green and low-carbon development.This article first selects 32 in-dicators from the macroeconomic field and 5 downstream copper industries to construct the index system of China s copper demand and prosperity;Secondly,the subjective and objective weighting method is used to determine the weight of indicators,and on this basis,monthly indicator data is selected to compile the prosperity index;Once again,divide the prosperity into three intervals:"slightly hot,"normal,and"slightly cold based on the threshold value,and output the prosperity signal light;Fi-nally,classify and predict 32 indicators,and use the data extended by one month to prepare the prosperity index as its predicted value.Research has found that there is a high correlation between the prosperity index and the growth rate of copper demand,and the trends of the two are basically consistent;The adjustment of PMI has improved the prediction accuracy of both the prosperity index and the prosperity signal light.Overall,this study is in good agreement with the development of domestic copper demand,and can provide forward-looking guidance for the production and import and export plans of domestic copper and copper material enterprises.
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