Research on the Development Trend,Characteristics and Policy Suggestions of Cattle Cycle in China
Since 2023,the continuous decline in beef prices in China has posed a severe challenge to the development of the beef industry.The continuous decline in beef prices and when to break out of the downward cycle have attracted widespread attention from all walks of life.This article provides an in-depth analysis of the development trends and characteristics of China's"cattle cycle".Research has found that since 1980,China's cattle inventory and beef production have gone through two complete cycles,with an average of 18.5 years and 15.5 years,respectively;Since 1994,beef prices have gone through three complete cycles,with an average of 92 months.The significant increase in beef prices occurred between 2000 and 2017,mainly due to the growth rate of beef consumption demand being higher than the growth rate of production,as well as the continuous rise in costs.The longevity production cycle leads to a significant lag in the response of cattle supply to prices compared to other factors.The linkage of meat prices and the high price elasticity of beef demand drive the overlap of the"cattle cycle"and the"pig cycle",and the level of household purchasing power and catering consumption demand have a significant impact on beef prices.Based on this,efforts should be made to increase the collection and storage of frozen beef and other rescue measures to stabilize the beef market and production,improve the organizational level of the beef industry,and establish a mechanism for sharing risks and benefits in the industry chain;By differentiating and reducing costs to increase efficiency,we can enhance the competitiveness of beef,improve breeding efficiency,stabilize the inventory of basic cows,and avoid farmers passively adjusting production capacity;Establish and strengthen monitoring and early warning of domestic and international beef markets,avoid excessive imports,and prevent the impact of international market fluctuations on the domestic market,to ensure the sustainable and stable development of the cattle industry.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
