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人口增长目标变化对家庭储蓄率的影响研究

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人口增长与家庭储蓄是理论界讨论的热点问题.本文利用人口增长目标数据与CFPS家庭收入数据进行匹配,研究人口增长与家庭储蓄率之间的关系.理论分析和经验研究发现,设定合理的人口增长目标对家庭储蓄率具有显著的提升作用,以上结论在控制了内生性问题后依然成立;进一步,异质性分析发现,农村家庭和男孩家庭因受传统观念等因素影响,其储蓄率提升更为显著.这一结论不仅丰富了人口增长经济效应的理论体系,也为理解中国家庭储蓄行为提供了新视角,据此提出构建有利于全面放开"三孩"的生育激励政策体系、实施激发家庭消费活力的宏观策略、加大对婴幼儿照护服务体系建设的资金投入等相应政策建议.
Study on the Effect of Changing Population Growth Target on Household Saving Rate
Population growth and household savings are hot topics in the researcher's community.This paper uses matching data on population growth targets and CFPS household income data to study the relationship between population growth and household savings rate.Theoretical analysis and empirical research find that setting a reasonable population growth target has a significant impact on household savings rate,and this conclusion holds after controlling for endogeneity;Further-more,heterogeneity analysis shows that rural households and boy households,affected by traditional concepts and other factors,have a more significant increase in savings rate.This conclusion not only enriches the theoretical system of the economic effects of population growth,but also provides a new perspective for understanding Chinese household savings behavior.Based on this,policy recommendations are proposed,including building a fertility incentive policy system conducive to the full implementa-tion of the"three-child policy,"implementing macroeconomic strategies to stimulate family consumption,and increasing fi-nancial input into the construction of infant and toddler care service systems.

population growth targetthe household saving ratemarriagesex ratio

朱庆虎

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中国农业银行博士后科研工作站

中国农业大学科研流动站

人口增长目标 家庭储蓄率 婚姻 性别比

2024

价格理论与实践
中国价格协会

价格理论与实践

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.54
ISSN:1003-3971
年,卷(期):2024.(7)
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