Exploration of Prediction Methods for Carbon Emission Trading Prices and Study on Key Influencing Factors——Analysis based on MIV-LSTM model
Carbon emissions trading,as an effective economic tool for addressing climate change issues,has attracted widespread attention from all sectors of society.This article is based on carbon emission trading price data from the National Carbon Emission Exchange,and uses the GA-BP-MIV model to study the impact of nine factors,including foreign carbon prices,domestic and foreign energy prices,macroeconomic indicators,and exchange rates,on carbon emission trading prices.The results indicate that the key factors affecting carbon emission trading prices are WTI crude oil prices,carbon emission fu-tures(ICE),and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index.In addition,ARMA model,LSTM single factor model,and MIV-LSTM multi factor model were used to predict the national carbon price.The results showed that the MIV-LSTM multi factor model had the highest accuracy and the best prediction performance.Based on the above research results,this article pro-poses policy recommendations for the development of the national carbon market,such as moderately grasping government macroeconomic regulation and predicting carbon prices in combination with key factors affecting carbon prices.
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