The impact of epidemics on the price fluctuation of live pigs——Based on VAR model analysis
In order to study the impact of epidemics on hog price fluctuations, this paper constructed a VAR model based on the pig epidemic width index and pig price from February 2009 to May 2018, whose relationship was empirically analysed.The results show that the disease is the Granger reason for the price of live pigs, and on the contrary, it does not hold; The pig embargo affects the supply and demand relationship, causing the price fluctuation of pigs, resulting in price differentiation in the production and sales area; The contribution rate of disease to hog price fluctuation reaches 2.10％, whose impact is not big but lasts long and will eventually lead to an increase in national pig prices. According to this, it is necessary to prevent epidemic, make compensation for farmers, stabilize the supply and demand of pigs, and avoid the large fluctuations in the price of live pigs caused by the impact of the disease.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
