The nonlinear impact of international crude oil prices on China's inflation
In order to better understand the inflation risk under the international oil price shock,this paper takes the international crude oil price,PPI and CPI as threshold variables,and uses the threshold vector autoregressive model and generalized impulse response function to analyze the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on China's PPI and CPI.The results show that the fluctuation of international crude oil prices has a significant impact on China's PPI and CPI,and the degree and direction of the impact depends on the threshold range of in-ternational crude oil prices,PPI and CPI.When the international crude oil price is at different levels,the impact of the international oil price shock is different.When inflation is at a high level,the impact of international oil price shocks on inflation is greater,and vice versa.In addition,the impact of international crude oil price shocks on in-flation is asymmetric,but the impact of rising international oil prices is not always greater than that of falling shocks.
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