Research on the impact effect of changes in terms of trade on agricultural productprices
With the acceleration of China's participation in international trade,the impact of the trade market on agricultural productprices has become more and more obvious.This paper selects the monthly data of wheat,corn,soybean and pork,and uses the TVP-VAR model for the first time to analyze the impact of changes in terms of trade on China's agricultural productprices.The research results indicate that firstly,the impact of changes in terms of trade on China's agricultural productprices has time-varying and short-term characteristics,manifested that the impact gradually weakens with the increase of lag period.Secondly,the impact of terms of trade varies among different products,and the impact effects will show different states due to changes in the ex-change rate system and agricultural support policies.Specifically,during the period of floating exchange rate sys-tem,the impact of changes in terms of trade on agricultural product prices is smaller than that in the period of fixed exchange rate system;The implementation of agricultural support policies has led to a correlation between agricultural product prices and government"bottom line"prices,thus weakening the external impact on the terms of trade.With the promotion of market-oriented reforms in China's agricultural policies,the impact of terms oftrade on the agricultural product market will gradually increase.Therefore,the government should accel-erate the establishment of risk prevention and control system for agricultural product prices,strengthen the infor-mation service capabilities of agricultural product markets,and actively seek measures to avoid abnormal fluctua-tions in trade conditions.
terms of tradeagricultural product pricesprice fluctuationTVP-VAR model
万方数据
维普
