Analysis of the spatial transmission effect of pork market price between China and major import source countries
When the domestic pork supply is tight,the imported pork market can serve as a powerful supplement to the domestic pork market.However,a large amount of imported pork will have a certain impact on the do-mestic pork market price.Quantifying the pork price conductivity between China and the major import source countries is conducive to improving the suitability of the supply system to the demand.This paper uses the data of pork prices in China,the United States,the European Union and Brazil from January 2015 to June 2020 to con-struct a VAR model to verify the Granger causality relationship between pork market prices in China and major import source countries,and predicts the long-term dynamic relationship between each variable through impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results showed that the Chinese pork market prices and the duration of the impact of pork prices on itself were significantly higher than those in Europe and America.From the impact of Chinese pork market prices on foreign pork market prices,it can be seen that Chinese pork prices had a positive impact on pork prices in Brazil and the European Union.When there was an 8-period lag,the variance decomposition contribution of Chinese pork prices to the impact on EU pork prices and Brazilian pork prices was 1.88％and 4.85％,respectively;From the perspective of the price transmission effect of foreign pork markets on the Chinese pork market,Brazilian pork prices also had a positive impact on Chinese pork prices.When lagged for 8 periods,the variance decomposition contribution of Brazilian pork prices to the impact on Chinese pork prices was 3.13％.
万方数据
维普
