The impact of RCEP tariff reduction on bilateral trade between China and Japan——Simulation analysis based on dynamic recursive GTAP model
The implementation of RCEP brings new opportunities and challenges to bilateral trade between China and Japan.Based on the product trade data under the SITC classification from 2013 to 2022,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the current development status and structure characteristics of bilateral trade between China and Japan,and uses the dynamic recursive GTAP model to simulate and analyze the impact of RCEP tariff re-ductions on bilateral trade.The results show that the bilateral trade between China and Japan fluctuates during the sample period,leading to fluctuations in the trade deficit;The trade structure between the two countries mainly focuses on machinery,transportation equipment,and miscellaneous products,indicating the interdependence be-tween the two countries in the fields of manufacturing and technology;The characteristics of trade structure show that the complementarity of bilateral trade between China and Japan is greater than competitiveness,and is domi-nated by intra-industry trade,and the comparative advantage is mainly reflected in labor-intensive and capital-intensive products.The results of GTAP model analysis show that the implementation of RCEP has promoted the growth of trade volume between China and Japan,and has a significant impact on the macroeconomic and social welfare of both countries;Although China's economic growth is relatively small,its foreign trade potential is more reflected in other trading member countries that have greater trade complementarity with it.
RCEPbilateral trade between China and JapanGTAP model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
