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数字贸易自由化对"一带一路"区域价值链可持续性的影响研究

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提升价值链可持续性是实现产业链供应链现代化的应有之义.近些年来,受新冠疫情、俄乌冲突和全球气候变暖等因素影响,逆全球化浪潮不断兴起,"一带一路"区域价值链的延展深化与可持续性提升面临较大冲击.基于2007-2022年"一带一路"沿线27个主要经济体32个行业的数据,构建"出口经济体-进口经济体-行业-时间"多维面板固定效应模型,实证考察数字贸易自由化对"一带一路"区域价值链可持续性的影响.研究发现:数字贸易自由化能够显著提升"一带一路"区域价值链可持续性,而数字技术创新在其中既可以起到独立中介作用,也可以通过价值链韧性起到链式中介作用.异质性检验发现,数字贸易自由化对中东欧地区、区域发达经济体、中高技术制造业和复杂价值链的可持续性影响更大;在所有数字贸易条款中,数字经济新问题条款覆盖率的促进作用最大,且2013年"一带一路"倡议提出后数字贸易自由化对"一带一路"区域价值链可持续性提升的作用更大.
Research on the impact of digital trade liberalization on the sustainability of"the Belt and Road"region value chain
Improving the sustainability of the value chain is essential for realizing the modernization of the indus-trial chain and supply chain.In recent years,under the influence of the COVID-19,the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global warming,the wave of anti-globalization has been rising,and the extension,deepening and sustainabil-ity improvement of"the Belt and Road"regional value chain are facing a greater impact.Based on the data of 32 industries in 27 major economies along"the Belt and Road"from 2007 to 2022,this paper constructs a multidi-mensional panel fixed effect model of"export economy-import economy-industry-time"to empirically inves-tigate the impact of digital trade liberalization on the sustainability of"the Belt and Road"regional value chain.It is found that digital trade liberalization can significantly improve the sustainability of"the Belt and Road"regional value chain,and digital technology innovation can play an independent intermediary role,as well as a chain in-termediary role through the resilience of the value chain.The heterogeneity test found that digital trade liberal-ization had a greater impact on the sustainability of Central and Eastern European region,developed economies in the region,medium and high technology manufacturing,and complex value chains;Among all digital trade terms,the coverage of new issues on the digital economy plays the largest role in promoting the sustainability of"the Belt and Road"regional value chain,and digital trade liberalization has played a greater role in promoting the sustainability of"the Belt and Road"regional value chain since"the Belt and Road"was put forward in 2013.

digital trade liberalizationsustainability of value chaindigital technology innovationvalue chain re-silience

赵立斌、朱国英

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河北大学经济学院,河北保定 071002

数字贸易自由化 价值链可持续性 数字技术创新 价值链韧性

2024

价格月刊
《价格月刊》杂志社

价格月刊

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.563
ISSN:1006-2025
年,卷(期):2024.(12)