Research on water supply and demand forecasting in irrigation areas based on the ARIMA time series mode
To achieve scientific prediction for water allocation and management in the Cihuai New River Irrigation Area,an ana-lytical system for the balance of water supply and demand was established in the irrigation area,using the actual water extrac-tion data from 1991 to 2023.Using grey relational analysis and the ARIMA time series model,the impact of water demand indi-cators such as agriculture,domestic use,and navigation on total water extraction and forecasts future water demand were ana-lyzed.The results showed that the highest correlation degree between irrigation water demand and actual pumping amount was 0.8983.Through multiple tests and model training,the ARIMA model achieved a prediction accuracy of 88.587%,and provided an effective reference for water supply and scheduling in the irrigation area.The prediction method proposed in this paper could be extended to other water-scarce regions,offering a reference for the optimization management of water supply and demand.
irrigation water managementARIMA modelgrey relational analysiswater volume prediction
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