Study on the encounter of wet and dry conditions between the water export and import areas in the water resources allocation project of Southwest Fujian
To analyze the feasibility of diverting water from the Hanjiang Basin to Southwest Fujian,the Copula theory was ap-plied to construct a joint distribution model of annual runoff for representative hydrological stations in the water export area of the Hanjiang Basin and the water import area of Southwest Fujian.This model quantitatively described the probability of wet and dry condition encounters between the Hanjiang export area and the Southwest Fujian import area.The probability rate of both the Shanghang station in the Hanjiang Basin and the Shilong station in Jinjiang experiencing a dry year(P≥75%)simul-taneously was 16.07%.The probability of both experiencing an extremely dry year(P≥95%)simultaneously was 2.24%.When the Shilong station in Jinjiang experienced an extremely dry year(P≥95%),the probability of the Shanghang station in the Hanjiang Basin experiencing a dry year(P≥75%)was 4.48%.The results indicated that in other words,the probability of both the Hanjiang Basin and the Jinjiang Basin in Fujian experiencing extremely dry years simultaneously was very low,and the probability of the two stations experiencing synchronized flood and drought frequencies was also relatively small.The research results provided a technical basis for analyzing the feasibility of constructing the water resource allocation project in Southwest Fujian.
Hanjiang Basinthe probability of concurrent wet and dry conditionsfeasibility analysisCopula function
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
