Characteristics and Forecast of China's Garment Export
To explore the characteristics and development trend of China's garment export,the GM(1,1)Model and MCGM(1,1)Modified Model were established based on Grey Theory and Markov Theory using the data of China's garment export from 2014 to 2022.The accuracy of the model was tested to explore the application effect of the Grey-Markov Model in the field of garment export forecasting.The results show that after correcting GM(1,1)Model by Markov chain,the average relative error of prediction decreases from 0.047 9 to 0.011 2,and the accuracy levels of average variance ratio error and small probability error are both improved from"qualified"to"excellent",the prediction accuracy is significantly improved,and the fitting curve of optimized simulation value is close to the actual change curve.It shows that MCGM(1,1)Modified Model is superior in garment export prediction.Then the Grey-Markov Model was used to forecast China's garment export from 2023 to 2027.It shows that China's garment export will offer a stable and fluctuating development trend in the next 5 years.In order to consolidate and strengthen the competitiveness of China's garment export,it put forward some suggestions on developing emerging markets,optimizing production structure,empowering garment products and strengthening integration and cooperation,so as to provide reference for the sustainable development of China's garment export enterprises.
garment exportexport characteristicsexport forecastGM(1,1)ModelGrey-Markov Model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
