首页|人口半城镇化与产业非农化的时空耦合分析——以浙江省67县市为例

人口半城镇化与产业非农化的时空耦合分析——以浙江省67县市为例

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通过改进人口半城镇化测算方法,运用双变量空间自相关及耦合度模型,分析了浙江省人口半城镇化与产业非农化的空间格局及耦合度,并对其耦合关系进行了时空分析和规律探讨.结果表明:①浙江省人口半城镇化与产业非农化均呈增长趋势,人口半城镇化呈现出南高北低的空间格局,产业非农化表现出相反的北高南低格局.②人口半城镇化与产业非农化表现出显著的空间负相关,形成浙北低人口半城镇化—高产业非农化、浙西和浙南高人口半城镇化—低产业非农化的空间格局.③浙江省大部分县市人口城镇化与产业非农化耦合水平处于较高水平以上,无明显空间差异;人口半城镇化与产业非农化以中度耦合和较高度耦合水平为主,2005-2014年间中度耦合县域逐渐转变成较高度耦合,在空间分布上出现明显空间差异.④相较于人口城镇化和产业非农化耦合度不断上升的特征,人口半城镇化与产业非农化存在动态耦合关系,与人口城镇化水平呈倒“U”型分布,倒“U”型拐点在人口城镇化水平的55％左右,浙江省大部分县市处于倒“U”型分布的左侧阶段,人口半城镇化与产业非农化的耦合发展可以提高人口城镇化水平,同时注意拐点右侧需结合产业升级、户籍制度改革等手段促进半城镇化人口市民化.
Spatial-Temporal Coupling Analysis of the County Population Peri-Urbanization and Industry Conversion——A Case Study of 67 countries and Cities in Zhejiang Province
By improving the method for calculating population peri-urbanization,and employing double variable spatial auto-correlation model and a model for coupling degree,analyzes this paper the spatial distribution pattern and coupling degree of the population peri-urbanization and industry conversion in Zhejiang Province.The theoretical exploration is conducted through two dimensions.Research results are as follows:Firstly,the population peri-urbanization and industry conversion are gradually increased,the population pet-urbanization presents a spatial pattern which is lower in the north and higher in the south,the spatial pattern of industry conversion is on the contrary.Secondly,the population periurbanization and industry conversion show the significant negative correlations,and present a spatial pattern which the population peri-urbanization is high and industry conversion is low in northern regions,the western and southern regions are on the contrary.Thirdly,the coupling degree of the population urbanization and industry conversion in most cities are at a high level,and without spatial difference;the coupling degree of the population peri-urbanization and industry conversion are concentrated in the medium and higher coupling types,and the medium coupling types are evolving into higher types,presenting a obvious spatial difference.Finally,Compared to the rising trend of the coupling degree between population urbanization and industrial conversion,there is a dynamic coupling relationship between the population peri-urbanization and industry conversion,its coupling degree and population urbanization show inverted "U" shaped distribute as a inverted "U",the turning point is in the population urbanization level of 55％.The main areas are currently on the left of inverted "U",developing population peri-urbanization and industry conversion can promote population urbanization level,and need combine with industrial upgrading,reform of the household registration system to improve the quality of population urbanization when it comes to turning point.

the population peri-urbanizationindustry conversionagricultural transfer of populationcitizenizationreform of household registration systemspatial auto-correlationZhejiang Province

苑韶峰、朱从谋、杨丽霞、徐建春

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浙江工商大学中国土地与城市治理研究院,中国浙江杭州310018

浙江工商大学土地资源管理系,中国浙江杭州310018

浙江财经大学城乡规划与管理学院,中国浙江杭州310018

人口半城镇化 产业非农化 农业转移人口 市民化 户籍制度改革 空间自相关 浙江省

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金浙江省新兴特色专业“浙江工商大学土地资源管理专业”建设项目浙江省新苗人才计划项目

41171151413711882016R408065

2017

10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2017.03.019

经济地理
中国地理学会 湖南省经济地理研究所

经济地理

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.575
ISSN：1000-8462
年,卷(期)：2017.37(3)
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