经济地理2024,Vol.44Issue(1) :118-129.DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2024.01.012

水—能源—粮食系统耦合视角下的中国分省碳达峰评估——基于LEAP模型的分析

Assessment of Carbon Peaking by Province in China from the Perspective of Water-Energy-Food System Coupling:Based on LEAP Model

刘自敏 刘曦泽 朱泓宇 何孟航
经济地理2024,Vol.44Issue(1) :118-129.DOI:10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2024.01.012

水—能源—粮食系统耦合视角下的中国分省碳达峰评估——基于LEAP模型的分析

Assessment of Carbon Peaking by Province in China from the Perspective of Water-Energy-Food System Coupling:Based on LEAP Model

刘自敏 1刘曦泽 2朱泓宇 3何孟航2
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作者信息

  • 1. 西南大学 经济管理学院,中国 重庆 400715
  • 2. 西南大学 含弘学院,中国 重庆 400715
  • 3. 西南大学 商贸学院,中国 重庆 400715
  • 折叠

摘要

文章核算了中国30个省份水—能源—粮食耦合视角下的混合能源,运用投入产出分析和社会网络分析法,结合接近中心度和耦合协调度,选取了4个代表性省份,应用长期能源替代规划系统对其在不同情境下的碳排放量、碳达峰时间和减碳贡献进行了重点预测和分析.结果表明:①中国的勉强协调发展省份呈现出高耦合、低发展的趋势;初级和中级协调发展省份的能源子系统评价指数相对较低.②在混合能源网络中,各省份发挥的作用和扮演的角色受经济、地理因素和资源禀赋差异的影响,呈现出一定的地域分布特点.③根据分类结果,各类别省份都有望提前实现碳达峰目标,并且在碳减排措施方面各有侧重.不同类型的省份都存在一个共性问题,即清洁能源替代和电力加速的贡献较低.最后,提出了应根据不同类别省份的实际情况制定不同的碳减排策略.

Abstract

This paper calculates the hybrid energy in 30 provincial-level region of China from the perspective of water-energy-food coupling.Based on the methods of input-output analysis,social network analysis,closeness centrality and coupling coordination degree,this paper predicts and analyzes carbon emissions,carbon peak time and carbon reduction contributions of 4 representative provinces under different scenarios applying the long-term energy substitution planning system.The results show that:1)The provinces with barely coordinated development show a trend of high coupling and low development,the energy subsystem evaluation index of the provinces with primary and intermediate coordinated development is relatively low.2)In the hybrid energy network,the functions and roles played by provinces are affected by economic,geographical and resource endowment differences,showing certain geographical distribution characteristics.3)According to the classification results,all types of provincial-level regions are expected to achieve carbon peak ahead of schedule,and have different emphasis on carbon emission reduction measures.There is a common problem in different types of provinces,that is,the contribution of clean energy substitution and electric power acceleration is low.Based on the above,it should formulate different carbon emission reduction strategies according to the actual situation of different provincial-level regions.

关键词

水—能源—粮食耦合/混合能源/LEAP模型/碳达峰评估/清洁能源/电力/碳减排策略

Key words

water-energy-food coupling/hybrid energy/LEAP model/carbon peaking assessment/clean energy/electricity/carbon reduction strategy

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基金项目

国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJL080)

重庆英才计划社会科学规划项目(2021YC016)

重庆市大学生创新创业训练计划(S202310635106)

出版年

2024
经济地理
中国地理学会 湖南省经济地理研究所

经济地理

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.575
ISSN:1000-8462
参考文献量38
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