Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Impact Mechanism of Population Aging in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration at the County Level
Based on the sub-county population census data in 2010 and 2020,This paper explores the spatial and temporal evolution of population aging in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration using the spatial autocorrelation analysis and the aging exponential growth mode.According to the McCarthy's the spatial agglomeration of the elderly,it analyzes the dynamic migration of non-elderly people and elderly people to grasp the overall change of the aging area,uses the structural equation model to clarify the path relationship between the influencing factors of population aging,and explores the mechanism of population aging at the county level in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.The results show that:1)From 2010 to 2020,the aging degree has deepen in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and has formed four heavy aging stage districts,the"inverse dual structure"has become prominent in districts and counties.The semi-annular growth rate belt of ageing in the Suzhou-Anhui region and the cluster growth rate belt of ageing in the Zhejiang-Anhui region will jointly push forward the process of population ageing in the urban agglomeration.The spatial agglomeration trend of the elderly population density is strengthened,and the high-density areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern municipal districts.2)Population migration configuration of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has deepened the degree of regional aging in general,and all of them show strong spatial agglomeration except for the substitution agglomeration.The highly aging regions are the result of the specific migration configuration.3)It analyzes the driving mechanism of the spatial and temporal evolution of population aging in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in terms of the regional economic level,social security,natural factors and settlement costs,and it is argued that natural factors,social factors and economic factors influence the process of population aging in the region by affecting the regional net migration rate of the population,the net migration rate of the young adult population,the net migration rate of the older adult population and the rate of natural increase.
population agingimpact mechanismstructural equation modelnet migration rateYangtze River Delta urban agglomeration
万方数据
维普
