Optimizing the Layout of China's Petroleum Import Market from the Perspective of Overall Risk and Cost
This study constructs an evaluation system of petroleum import risk based on three dimensions of the supply chain and eight selected indicators.After a multidimensional identification of the country-specific risks associated with China's petroleum imports from 2019 to 2021,the research explores strategies for optimizing the import market layout with dual objectives of minimizing overall risk and achieving the lowest average cost.The study also simulates the effects of market layout optimization under three potential scenarios.The results indicate the following:1)Significant country-specific differences exist in the risks,costs,and their trends associated with China's petroleum imports,presenting substantial potential for optimization.2)Optimized market layout tends to increase imports from countries such as Colombia,Ecuador,and Malaysia,and decrease shares from countries such as Saudi Arabia,Angola,and the United Kingdom.This approach is beneficial for lowering overall risks and assisting in reducing average costs.Notably,the effect of risk reduction is particularly significant,mainly attributed to the optimization of import shares from Saudi Arabia.3)The growth in China's petroleum import demand and the significant decrease in OPEC countries'exports to China have increased the overall risks and costs of China's imports.However,the substantial reduction in country-specific risks from BRICS nations has significantly mitigated China's overall import risk.Therefore,China should focus on stabilizing economic relationships with major nations,promoting the development of new energy industries,actively optimizing market layouts to reduce overall petroleum import risks and average costs,and establishing a multidimensional risk warning and control system to ensure the security of the import supply chain.
万方数据
维普
