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江苏省宅基地退出影响因素及其分区治理

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文章基于2018-2022年江苏省6754户的农户数据,采用空间自相关模型分析农户宅基地退出意愿的空间特征,采用Logistic和门槛模型剖析风险承载力对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响,在划定宅基地退出分区的同时提出因地制宜的治理方案。结果表明:①主观规范、行为态度和知觉行为控制对农户意愿有正向作用。②风险承载力对农户意愿存在双门槛效应。③结合农户意愿空间相关性与风险承载力门槛效应,确定核心优选区、重点改革区、重点调节区、适度改革区和综合改革区。其中,淮安、宿迁为核心优选区,农户意愿空间集聚,风险承载力适中,应为改革示范区;连云港、扬州与泰州为重点改革区,应强化地区联动,促进农户意愿的空间扩散;南通作为重点调节区,应防范农户意愿的回流效应;南京、镇江、常州、无锡与苏州为适度改革区,应加强政策引导,提升农户意愿;徐州、盐城为综合改革区,需完善农村保障机制,加强风险承载力。
Influencing Factors and Zoning Governance of Rural Residential Land Withdrawal in Jiangsu Province
Based on the data of 6754 households in Jiangsu Province from 2018 to 2022,this paper uses spatial autocorrelation model to analyze the spatial characteristics of farmers'willingness in terms of rural residential land withdrawal,used the methods of Logistic and threshold model to analyze the influence mechanism of risk carrying capacity on farmers'willingness,and puts forward the governance scheme according to local conditions.Results show that:1)Subjective norms,behavioral attitudes and perceived behavioral control have a positive impact on farmers'willingness.2)The impact of risk carrying capacity on farmers'willingness has a double threshold effect.3)Combined with the spatial correlation of farmers'willingness and the threshold effect of risk carrying capacity,it designates the core preferred area,key reform area,key adjustment areas,moderate reform area and comprehensive reform area.Among them,Huai'an and Suqian with moderate risk carrying capacity is designated as the core preferred areas,and should be reform demonstration areas.Lianyungang,Yangzhou and Taizhou,as key reform areas,should strengthen the regional linkage,and promote the spatial diffusion of farmers'willingness.As a key adjustment area,Nantong should focus on preventing the backflow effect of farmers'willingness.As moderate reform areas,Nanjing,Zhenjiang,Changzhou,Wuxi and Suzhou should strengthen policy guidance and enhance farmers'willingness.Xuzhou and Yancheng,as comprehensive reform areas,need to improve the rural security mechanism and strengthen the risk carrying capacity of farmers.

homesteadfarmers'willingnessrisk carrying capacityzoningrural security mechanismtreatment countermeasure

韩述、郭贯成、孙昊

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南京农业大学 公共管理学院,中国 江苏 南京 210095

南京农业大学 中国资源环境与发展研究院,中国 江苏 南京 210095

宅基地 农户意愿 风险承载力 分区 农村保障机制 治理对策

国家社会科学基金重点项目

20AGL024

2024

经济地理
中国地理学会 湖南省经济地理研究所

经济地理

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.575
ISSN:1000-8462
年,卷(期):2024.44(4)