首页|新型城镇化视角下湖南省农业转移人口市民化意愿的空间分布及影响因素——基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据

新型城镇化视角下湖南省农业转移人口市民化意愿的空间分布及影响因素——基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据

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文章基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测数据,运用全局莫兰指数、趋势面分析等方法,结合二分类Logistic回归模型,对湖南省县域农业转移人口市民化意愿的空间分布和影响因素进行研究.结果表明:①湖南省农业转移人口市民化意愿总体水平不高,有市民化意愿者不足1/3.②从空间集聚度来看,湖南省农业转移人口的市民化意愿在县域空间上呈随机分布;从空间趋势来看,有市民化意愿的农业转移人口数总体呈现出东部多、南部少的空间格局.有市民化意愿的农业转移人口占比表现为自北向南先升高后降低的倒"U"型曲线,呈现出南北低、中部高的空间分布态势.③湖南省农业转移人口市民化意愿受到个人因素、家庭因素、经济因素、社会因素、土地因素多方面影响,其中性别、年龄、受教育程度、婚姻状况、家庭收入、现住房性质、社会认同感、拥有承包地和宅基地对农业转移人口市民化意愿具有显著影响.未来,湖南省县级及以上人民政府在制定农业转移人口市民化激励政策时,宜充分考虑市民化意愿空间特征和影响因素.
Spatial Distribution and Influencing Factors of the Citizenization Willingness of Agricultural Transfer Population in Hunan Province under the Perspective of New Urbanization:Based on the Dynamic Monitoring Data of the National Floating Population in 2017
Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the national floating population in 2017,this article uses the methods of global Moran index,trend surface analysis,and binary Logistic regression model to study the spatial distribution and influencing factors of the citizenization willingness of agricultural transfer population in Hunan Province.It's found that:1)The overall level of the citizenization willingness of Hunan Province's agricultural transfer population is not high,and those who have the willingness to become citizens are less than 1/3.2)From the perspective of spatial agglomeration,the citizenization willingness of agricultural transfer population in Hunan Province is randomly distributed in county space.From the perspective of spatial trends,the number of agricultural transfer population with the citizenization willingness generally shows an uneven spatial distribution which is higher in the east of Hunan Province than that in the south of Hunan Province.The proportion of agricultural transfer population with the citizenization willingness shows an inverted"U"curve that rises from the north which is lower in the north and south of Hunan Province and higher in middle of Hunan Province.3)The citizenization willingness of agricultural transfer population in Hunan Province is affected by personal factors,family factors,economic factors,social factors,and land factors.Among them,gender,age,education,marital status,family income,the nature of the current housing,social identity,and ownership of contracted land and residential land have a significant impact on the citizenization willingness of the agricultural transfer population.In the future,the people's government of Hunan Province at or above the county level should fully consider the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of citizenization willingness when formulating the incentive policy of citizenization of agricultural transfer population.

new-type urbanizationfloating populationagricultural transfer populationspatial distributioncitizenization willingnessHunan Province

李琴、谢治、张子涵、周雨霄

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湖南师范大学 法学院,中国 湖南 长沙 410081

湖南人文科技学院 学生工作部,中国 湖南 娄底 417000

中南林业科技大学 经济学院,中国 湖南 长沙 410004

湖南师范大学 公共管理学院,中国 湖南 长沙 410081

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新型城镇化 流动人口 农业转移人口 空间分布 市民化意愿 湖南省

2024

经济地理
中国地理学会 湖南省经济地理研究所

经济地理

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.575
ISSN:1000-8462
年,卷(期):2024.44(11)