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中国减污降碳与扩绿增长耦合协调度的时空特征及其驱动因素

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文章基于2011-2022年中国31个省份的面板数据,在构建减污降碳协同水平和扩绿增长指数评价指标体系的基础上,运用博弈论组合赋权法、耦合协调度模型、多尺度地理加权回归模型等方法,考察了中国减污降碳与扩绿增长耦合协调度的时空演化特征及驱动因素.结果表明:①研究期内中国减污降碳与扩绿增长耦合协调度总体呈现上升趋势,由轻度失调阶段上升至勉强协调阶段;空间分布从高到低依次为东部地区、中部地区、东北地区、西部地区,其中东部地区领先优势明显且逐渐扩大.②中国各省份减污降碳与扩绿增长耦合协调水平在空间上存在固化和动态变化特征,少数省份始终处于同一耦合协调阶段,多数省份上升至勉强协调及以上阶段.③从驱动因素看,能源消费结构对东北地区和京津冀地区耦合协调度的驱动作用较大,环境规制强度对华北地区耦合协调度的驱动作用较大,交通运输结构对东部沿海地区耦合协调度的驱动效应较大,人口密度对华中地区和华南地区耦合协调度的驱动效应较大,而能源利用效率的正向作用基本覆盖全部样本省份.
Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Coupling Coordination Degree Between the Pollution-Carbon Reduction,and the Green Expansion and Economic Growth in China
This article constructs the evaluation index systems of the synergy level of pollution-carbon reduction,and the index of green expansion and economic growth.Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2011 to 2022,it investigates the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of the coupling coordination degree between the pollution-carbon reduction,and the green expansion and economic growth in China using the methods of game theory combination weighting method,coupling coordination degree model,multi-scale geographical weighted regression model.The research indicates that:1)From 2011 to 2022,the overall coupling coordination degree between the pollution-carbon reduction,and the green expansion and economic growth showed an upward trend in provincial-level regions of China,rising from the stage of mild imbalance to the stage of barely coordinated.The spatial distribution of coupling coordination degree from high to low is the eastern,central,northeastern,and western regions,with the leading advantage of the eastern region being obvious and gradually expanding.2)The coupling coordination degree between the pollution-carbon reduction,and the green expansion and economic growth showed the characteristics of spatial solidification and dynamic changes from 2011 to 2022,with a few provinces always at the same stage of coupling coordination and most rising to the stage of barely coordinated and above.3)Energy consumption structure exerts greater driving effect on the coupling coordination degree in the northeast China and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions,environmental regulation intensity plays a greater driving role in the coupling coordination degree in north China,transportation structure plays a greater role in driving the coupling coordination in the eastern coastal region,population density has a larger driving effect on the coupling coordination in central and southern China,while the positive effect of energy utilization efficiency basically covers all provincial-level samples.

pollution-carbon reductiongreen expansion and economic growthcoupling coordinationspatio-temporal evolution characteristicdriving factormulti-scale geographic weighted regression(MGWR)model

尹碧波、邝萍、欧阳昕彤、郑佳琦

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湖南工商大学 资源环境学院,中国 湖南 长沙 410205

西南财经大学 中国西部经济研究院,中国 四川 成都 611130

减污降碳 扩绿增长 耦合协调 时空演化特征 驱动因素 多尺度地理加权回归模型

2024

经济地理
中国地理学会 湖南省经济地理研究所

经济地理

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.575
ISSN:1000-8462
年,卷(期):2024.44(11)