Artificial Intelligence,General Rate of Profit and Global Chronic Excess Capacity:A Perspective of Three Departments of Political Economics
Under the background of the rapid growth in artificial intelligence(AI)today,the existing research pays insufficient attention to global chronic excess capacity issues,and particularly lacks an analytical perspective of political economics.This paper expands the analysis perspective of Marx's two departments to three departments,uses non-competitive input-output table to estimate the value composition and general rate of profit(GRP)of the three departments in 30 countries,calculates their capacity utilization of the three departments from 2000 to 2019 based on Neo-Kaleckian model,uses the PVAR model to analyze the impact of AI and GRP on the capacity utilization of the three departments.The empirical results of this paper are as follows:firstly,the average capacity utilization of the three departments in developing countries is significantly higher than that in developed countries,their gap shows a clear narrowing trend,and both show a clear downward trend.Secondly,the"creative destruction"brought about by the 2008 economic crisis did not reverse the global"long-term excess capacity"trend.Thirdly,the changes in GRP have a negative impact on capacity utilization,and this negative impact is stronger in developing countries.At the same time,changes in AI will have a positive effect on GRP,and this positive effect is more significant in developing countries than that in developed countries.Lastly,the growth of AI in developed countries tends to expand potential output and relatively lower its capacity utilization,while in developing countries,it tends to increase actual output and relatively increase its capacity utilization in the short run.The academic contributions of this paper lie in the following three aspects:first and foremost,Marx's ideas of two departments are extended to three departments,and the profit margins of the three departments are estimated and incorporated into the calculation process of the capacity utilization in Neo-Kaleckian model,which gives a new theoretical idea for measuring the capacity utilization at the national macro-level.Therefore,it provides a new theoratical explanation for macro capacity utilization.Especially,the approach of this paper helps to break out the western economics'theoretical dilemma that the capacity utilization'results vary greatly with different research methods.Finally,this paper finds that the global"long-term excess capacity"feature is obvious,and AI has a differentiated impact on the capacity utilization of countries with different levels of economic development.Therefore,to a certain extent,the findings of this paper enrich the study of global chronic excess capacity as well as the impact of AI on capacity utilization.This paper has the policy implications for understanding the degree of overcapacity between developed and developing countries,promoting long-term excess capacity governance worldwide,and providing practical guidance for China to promote the development of high-tech department.First,the fact that the average capacity utilization of the three departments in developing countries is significantly higher than that of developed countries shows that,the attempt by a few developed countries to try to accuse developing countries of causing global overcapacity is unfounded.Strengthening communication and coordination,and working together to promote sustainable development of the world economy,are the correct ways to fundamentally solve the problem of global chronic excess capacity.Second,developing countries should explore their competitive advantages,continuously optimize their business environment,utilize their profit margin advantages to attract high-quality foreign investment,actively participate in international cooperation in AI,and promote the development of high-tech department.Developed countries should abandon trade protectionism and unilateralism,and assist developing countries in improving their actual output levels and capacity utilization.Third,in the face of the momentous changes of a scale unseen in a century,China should seize the historic opportunity of the development of AI,vigorously promote international production capacity cooperation,and strive to make technological breakthrough.
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