Certainty in Uncertainty:China's Economic Risk Identification
In order to reveal the deterministic law of China's economic risks under the impact of uncertainty,this paper,based on the expected economic growth distribution,incorporates uncer-tainty and economic growth into the unified framework of"growth at risk",and measures hetero-geneous impacts of economic uncertainty and financial uncertainty on economic risks.The results are as follows.Firstly,economic risk under the impact of uncertainty has obvious deterministic characteristics.With the increase of uncertainty,economic downside risk increases significantly,while economic upside risk is relatively stable.Secondly,the potential fluctuation space of eco-nomic growth is relatively small under the impact of low uncertainty,and the economic growth has greater fluctuation space under the impact of high uncertainty.Thirdly,there is a"two-way feedback"spillover and circulation mechanism between uncertainty and economic growth,which aggravates the actual effect of uncertainty.Finally,economic uncertainty and financial uncertain-ty have significantly heterogeneous effects on economic risk,while the impact of economic uncer-tainty is more significant in terms of impact intensity and duration.
uncertaintyeconomic riskgrowth at riskexpected economic growth distribution
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