Treaty Ports,Treaty Linkage and Trade in Modern China
Reverse globalization is increasingly strengthening and raising trade policy uncertain-ty,while the Chinese government insists on high-level opening.This paper reexamines the cau-sality between opening and trade by using the quasi-experiment of treaty ports in modern China.We argue that the treaty linkage can eliminate the uncertainty and promote the FDI and foreign trade in the treaty ports.By employing the panel data of the foreign trade between 50 ports and 32 countries or regions from 1927 to 1931,this paper finds that the treaty ports see more foreign trade than the ports opened purely by the Chinese government,but see indifferent volume with the ports opened by the Chinese government according to a particular treaty.Within the broad-sense treaty ports,it is not the power sphere but the treaty linkage,particularly the concession linkage that significantly promoted the trade of the treaty ports through FDI.With the shock of the tariff autonomy reform in 1929,the volume of imported goods in the ports decreased,but the first treaty countries could enlarge their exports to the ports for their first entry advantages.
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