Energy Transition Risk from the Perspective of Dual Energy Constraints
This paper constructs an input-output model to explore whether and how the energy transition process,from the perspective of the"dual energy constraints"of"fossil energy having a limit on reserves"and the"indirect dependence of renewable energy production on fossil energy",poses significant risks to the global economic growth.The benchmark results indicate that a sub-stantial increase in fossil energy production costs disrupts the investment growth rate in the renew-able energy sector and leads to an ineffective compensation for the decline in fossil energy produc-tion by the expansion of renewable energy production,causing a decrease in per capita energy con-sumption levels.The low per capita energy consumption levels will lead to an increase in the mor-tality rate,making the workforce a limiting factor for economic growth and eventually causing a sig-nificant energy transition risk characterized by a sustained and substantial decline in real GDP.Further research suggests that stimulating the investment demand in the renewable energy sector can effectively improve the long-term growth paths of population and economic output.
dual energy constraintsenergy transition riskinput-output modelinvestment
万方数据
维普
