Long-term Economic Benefits of Three-North Shelter Forest Program:A Study Based on Spatial Regression Discontinuity
The Three-North Shelter Forest Program has two main objectives:ecological benefits and economic benefits.Existing literature on the economic benefits of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program still lacks analysis from a strict economic perspective.Using the method of spatial regression discontinuity and the night-light data,this paper finds that the Three-North Shelter Forest Program has long-term economic benefits.Specifically,compared with the counties and cities outside the boundary of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program,it has a significant promo-ting effect on the economic development of the counties and cities within 100 km of the bounda-ry,which is translated into an average annual GDP growth rate of 0.57%.A series of robustness tests and placebo tests supported this conclusion.The cost-benefit analysis shows that the eco-nomic benefits of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program were far greater than the costs,so the overall social welfare has been greatly improved,and the win-win situation of environmental pro-tection and economic development has been realized.Mechanism analysis shows that the Three-North Shelter Forest Program significantly promoted the development of the primary industry.
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