Industrial Diversification and Urban Economic Resilience——Three-stage Model and the Moderating Role of Entrepreneurial Vitality
How to minimize the negative impact of uncertainty risks and enhance the resilience of urban econo-my is an important issue faced by China's economy in transitioning from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quali-ty development stage.Based on the self-organization theory,this paper innovatively puts forward a three-stage mod-el of the impact of industrial diversification on urban economic resilience,using 282 prefecture level cities in China from 2004 to 2020 as samples.From the perspectives of coordination cost effect,knowledge spillover effect,and breakthrough innovation effect,it explores the relationship between industrial diversification and urban economic re-silience,as well as the regulatory role of entrepreneurial vitality.The results show that:The influence of industrial diversification on urban economic resilience meets the hypothesis of the three-stage model,and there exists an N-shaped curve relationship between the two,and entrepreneurial vitality has a positive influence on urban economic resilience,and negatively moderates the N-shaped relationship between industrial diversification and urban eco-nomic resilience;a regression based on the correlation degree finds that the correlation between related diversity and urban economic resilience is inverted U-shaped,while the correlation between unrelated diversity and urban economic resilience is U-shaped,an regional difference regression finds that the N-shaped relationship between in-dustrial diversification and urban economic resilience is significant in eastern China and coastal cities but not in central and western China and inland cities.The study proposes that local governments should flexibly adjust indus-trial policies based on the characteristics of changes of different industrial stages,promote coordinated development between industries,and enhance the positive role of industrial diversification in urban economic resilience.