首页|产业多样化与城市经济韧性——三阶段模型与创业活力的调节作用

产业多样化与城市经济韧性——三阶段模型与创业活力的调节作用

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如何最大限度降低不确定性风险带来的负面影响,增强城市经济韧性,是我国经济由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段面临的重要问题.基于自组织理论,文章以2004-2020年中国282个地级市为样本,创新性地提出产业多样化影响城市经济韧性的三阶段模型,从协调成本效应、知识溢出效应和突破性创新效应等角度出发,探究产业多样化与城市经济韧性的关系以及创业活力的调节作用.结果表明:产业多样化影响城市经济韧性满足三阶段模型的假设,两者存在N型曲线关系,创业活力对城市经济韧性具有正向影响,创业活力负向调节产业多样化与城市经济韧性的N型关系;基于产业相关度的回归发现,相关多样化与城市经济韧性呈现倒U型关系,无关多样化与城市经济韧性呈现U型关系;基于区域异质性的回归发现,产业多样化与城市经济韧性的N型关系在东部地区、沿海城市显著,而在中西部地区和内陆城市不显著.研究提出,地方政府应根据不同产业阶段化变化的特征,灵活调节产业政策,促进产业间协调发展,增强产业多样化对城市经济韧性的积极作用.
Industrial Diversification and Urban Economic Resilience——Three-stage Model and the Moderating Role of Entrepreneurial Vitality
How to minimize the negative impact of uncertainty risks and enhance the resilience of urban econo-my is an important issue faced by China's economy in transitioning from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quali-ty development stage.Based on the self-organization theory,this paper innovatively puts forward a three-stage mod-el of the impact of industrial diversification on urban economic resilience,using 282 prefecture level cities in China from 2004 to 2020 as samples.From the perspectives of coordination cost effect,knowledge spillover effect,and breakthrough innovation effect,it explores the relationship between industrial diversification and urban economic re-silience,as well as the regulatory role of entrepreneurial vitality.The results show that:The influence of industrial diversification on urban economic resilience meets the hypothesis of the three-stage model,and there exists an N-shaped curve relationship between the two,and entrepreneurial vitality has a positive influence on urban economic resilience,and negatively moderates the N-shaped relationship between industrial diversification and urban eco-nomic resilience;a regression based on the correlation degree finds that the correlation between related diversity and urban economic resilience is inverted U-shaped,while the correlation between unrelated diversity and urban economic resilience is U-shaped,an regional difference regression finds that the N-shaped relationship between in-dustrial diversification and urban economic resilience is significant in eastern China and coastal cities but not in central and western China and inland cities.The study proposes that local governments should flexibly adjust indus-trial policies based on the characteristics of changes of different industrial stages,promote coordinated development between industries,and enhance the positive role of industrial diversification in urban economic resilience.

Urban economic resilienceIndustrial diversificationEntrepreneurship vitalityThree-stage mod-elN-type curve

樊钱涛、黄楷佳

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浙江科技学院经济与管理学院,浙江杭州 310023

城市经济韧性 产业多样化 创业活力 三阶段模型 N型曲线

国家社会科学基金一般项目浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划项目国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目

20BJY0872021GH029202211057036

2024

经济论坛
河北省社会科学院

经济论坛

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.394
ISSN:1003-3580
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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