首页|农村劳动力流动、经济增长对城乡二元结构的影响——基于动态面板与门槛效应模型的实证分析

农村劳动力流动、经济增长对城乡二元结构的影响——基于动态面板与门槛效应模型的实证分析

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城乡一体化发展是破解新时代社会主要矛盾的关键抓手.近年来,我国经济不断发展,农村劳动力流动规模不断扩大.但城乡二元结构并没有随着经济增长和劳动力流动而同步转化,存在着严重的滞后性.城乡二元结构成为掣肘经济持续发展的重要因素.文章基于2006-2020年我国31省份面板数据,运用系统动态面板模型(SYS-GMM)分析劳动力流动与经济增长对城乡二元结构的影响;运用门槛效应模型,以劳动力流动为门槛变量,分析经济增长对城乡二元结构的非线性影响.结果表明,劳动力流动促进城乡二元结构转化,而经济增长抑制城乡二元结构转化;经济增长对城乡二元结构的作用受到劳动力流动的影响,表现出门槛效应:当劳动力流动规模超过一定限度后,经济增长对城乡二元结构转化的抑制作用将得到缓解.
The Impact of Rural Labor Mobility and Economic Growth on Urban-Rural Dual Structure——An Empirical Analysis Based on Dynamic Panel and Threshold Effect Models
Integrated urban and rural development is the key to cracking the major social contradictions of the new era.In recent years,China's economy has been in growth,and the scale of rural labor mobility has been ex-panding.However,the urban-rural dual structure has not been transformed synchronously along with economic growth and labor mobility,and there is a serious lag.The urban-rural dual structure has become an important factor constraining the sustainable economic development.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2006 to 2020,this paper applies the systematic dynamic panel model(SYS-GMM)to analyze the impact of labor mobility and economic growth on the urban-rural dual structure,and the threshold effect model to analyze the impact of economic growth on the urban-rural dual structure in a nonlinear way,with the labor mobility as the threshold variable.The results show that labor mobility promotes the transformation of the urban-rural dual struc-ture while economic growth inhibits the transformation of the urban-rural dual structure,and the role of economic growth on the urban-rural dual structure is affected by labor mobility,which shows the threshold effect——when the scale of labor mobility exceeds a certain limit,the inhibition of economic growth on the transformation of the ur-ban-rural dual structure will be alleviated.

Urban-rural dual structureLabor force mobilityEconomic growthDynamic panelsThreshold effect

刘华光、于亚琳、赵晗薇

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河北经贸大学商学院,河北石家庄 050061

城乡二元结构 劳动力流动 经济增长 动态面板 门槛效应

2024

经济论坛
河北省社会科学院

经济论坛

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.394
ISSN:1003-3580
年,卷(期):2024.(4)
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